The New England Patriots could potentially wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win on Sunday and a little help ? and it sure doesn?t seem like Miami will pose much of a threat to the Pats.
Losses by the Steelers and Ravens last week gave the Patriots a one-game edge in securing home-field advantage. The Patriots have won seven of their last nine games against the Dolphins. Even though they?ve lost their past two playoff home games, home is important for Tom Brady in the playoffs. In five road playoff games, Brady has six touchdown passes and six interceptions. In 10 home playoff games, Brady has 16 touchdown passes and nine interceptions.
The loss of Andre Carter could be huge for the Pats, both for his impact as a pass rusher and against the run. Expect teams to challenge Mark Anderson there, and Reggie Bush is having a career year. Playing primarily at end in a newly installed 4-3 scheme, Carter provided the Patriots with a team-high 10 sacks. Without him, it?s possible the club could return to more of the 3-4 arrangement it has used in past years.
Saturday?s game seems straightforward enough for the Patriots, who?ve outscored the Dolphins 117-45 in winning all three meetings over the last two seasons. Miami has looked like a vastly improved team lately, however, winning five of seven since an 0-7 start. The revival wasn?t good enough to save Tony Sparano?s job, but the Dolphins won their first game under interim coach Todd Bowles, overcoming wintry weather for a 30-23 victory at Buffalo last week. QB Matt Moore is 5-5 with an 88.7 rating as a starter since replacing Chad Henne.
The Patriots rarely falter in December at home, going 19-1 since 2002. The big reason is Brady, who is at his best when the stakes are high. The Patriots can clinch home-field advantage in the AFC if they win and both Baltimore and Pittsburgh lose. Brady is also chasing a bit of history. He needs 491 passing yards over the final two games to eclipse single-season record-holder Dan Marino?s 5,084. The last time these teams met, in Week 1, he threw for 517.
WAGERWEB.COM NFL FOOTBALL ODDS ? Patriots by 9?
RECORD VS. SPREAD ? Miami 7-6; New England 7-6
SERIES RECORD ? Dolphins lead 50-42
LAST MEETING ? Patriots beat Dolphins 38-24, Sept. 12
LAST WEEK ? Dolphins beat Bills 30-23; Patriots beat Broncos 41-23
DOLPHINS OFFENSE ? OVERALL (21), RUSH (7), PASS (24)
DOLPHINS DEFENSE ? OVERALL (15), RUSH (3), PASS (25)
PATRIOTS OFFENSE ? OVERALL (2), RUSH (20), PASS (2)
PATRIOTS DEFENSE ? OVERALL (32), RUSH (19), PASS (32)
STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES ? In first meeting in season opener, teams combined for NFL single-game record of 906 yards passing. ? Patriots have won seven of last nine games against Dolphins. ? Teams tied for first in AFC with 34 pass plays of 25 yards or more. ? Miami coach Todd Bowles 1-0 since replacing fired Tony Sparano. ? RB Reggie Bush sixth in AFC with 973 yards rushing after gaining career-high 203 last Sunday. ? Dolphins have just 34 offensive penalties, second fewest in league to Jacksonville?s 33. ? Miami 5-2 since losing first seven games. ?Matt Moore has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes in each of last four games. ? Brandon Marshall second in NFL in receptions starting in 2007 with 463. New England?s Wes Welker is first with 536. ? Patriots can clinch home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs if they win and Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh all lose or tie. ? Tom Brady needs 491 yards passing in his last two games to pass NFL record-holder Dan Marino?s 5,084. New Orleans? Drew Brees needs 304. ? Rob Gronkowski needs 150 yards receiving in last two games to surpass record of 1,290 for tight ends set in 1980 by Kellen Winslow of San Diego. ? Patriots have allowed most total yards for season in NFL for all but first two weeks.
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